Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 124.711674 143.590772 165.048569 191.384965 223.031104 260.075085 307.073928
2025-12-21 99.374529 122.851140 151.997616 191.343924 243.847974 312.623465 411.438817
2025-12-28 88.337657 115.224538 150.939960 202.918419 278.469549 387.301651 561.781013
2026-01-04 79.869170 108.693101 149.111371 211.676303 309.406220 462.295393 732.835257
2026-01-11 72.991725 102.905066 146.805134 218.454613 337.682172 538.606675 928.411892
2026-01-18 66.654759 96.802070 142.786731 221.345680 359.551549 608.602663 1134.900492
2026-01-25 60.872339 90.678506 137.681576 221.255685 375.756645 671.680347 1349.151794
2026-02-01 55.105838 83.839742 130.431418 216.129008 381.460095 715.527006 1537.481740
2026-02-08 50.152219 77.744762 123.610626 210.590713 385.068691 755.596107 1732.054069
2026-02-15 45.995545 72.526943 117.642909 205.653215 388.763880 796.472096 1945.220665
2026-02-22 45.015245 72.569659 120.837118 218.576573 432.125371 939.332664 2508.954701
2026-03-01 42.669322 69.981073 118.946712 221.070729 453.132721 1034.220738 2980.344953
2026-03-08 40.676651 67.925999 117.988737 225.734371 481.163779 1159.002427 3641.324713
2026-03-15 38.288621 64.932516 114.923837 225.496533 497.594804 1258.279386 4283.630256
2026-03-22 37.668597 65.157432 118.152336 239.618236 553.637487 1495.414437 5697.788781
2026-03-29 36.706195 64.624901 119.776821 250.347307 603.639439 1735.898872 7392.326970
2026-04-05 35.573104 63.644586 120.348042 258.669440 649.266385 1983.222281 9439.473532
2026-04-12 34.116400 61.885041 119.063999 262.222952 681.987775 2199.834376 11620.377757
2026-04-19 32.489561 59.641316 116.491254 262.112236 703.597277 2384.507677 13888.994570
2026-04-26 30.537366 56.575980 111.804504 255.811924 704.037215 2482.463290 15675.085148
2026-05-03 28.713115 53.646312 107.161547 249.013499 701.474397 2567.939462 17536.825892
2026-05-10 27.090563 51.026983 102.994705 242.959460 700.225566 2660.662510 19681.055723
2026-05-17 27.013888 51.694772 106.495848 258.818945 780.883917 3202.156274 28078.577305